In the September issue of The Forum I made the following predictions for this year’s NFL standings. * indicates a possibility (reasonable, not mathematical) of finishing as predicted. ** indicates a probability of finishing as predicted.
| September Predictions | Actual Standings as of Nov. 7, 2007 |
|---|---|
| New England 12-4* | New England 9-0 |
| N.Y. Jets 10-6 | N.Y. Jets 1-8 |
| Buffalo 6-10* | Buffalo 4-4 |
| Miami 8-8 | Miami 0-8 |
| —– | —– |
| Pittsburgh 12-4** | Pittsburgh 6-2 |
| Cincinnati 12-4 | Cleveland 5-3 |
| Baltimore 11-5 | Baltimore 4-4 |
| Cleveland 5-11 | Cincinnati 2-6 |
| —– | —– |
| Indianapolis 12-4* | Indianapolis 7-1 |
| Tennessee 10-6** | Tennessee 6-2 |
| Jacksonville 9-7** | Jacksonville 5-3 |
| Houston 3-13 | Houston 4-5 |
| —– | —– |
| San Diego 13-3 | Kansas City 4-4 |
| Denver 10-6* | San Diego 4-4 |
| Kansas City 8-8** | Denver 3-5 |
| Oakland 6-10** | Oakland 2-6 |
| —– | —– |
| Dallas 10-6* | Dallas 7-1 |
| Philadelphia 9-7** | New York 6-2 |
| Washington 7-9* | Washington 5-3 |
| New York 7-9 | Philadelphia 3-5 |
| —– | —– |
| Chicago 10-6* | Green Bay 7-1 |
| Detroit 9-7* | Detroit 6-2 |
| Minnesota 8-8* | Minnesota 3-5 |
| Green Bay 3-13 | Chicago 3-5 |
| —– | —– |
| New Orleans 13-3 | Tampa Bay 5-4 |
| Tampa Bay 8-8** | Carolina 4-4 |
| Carolina 8-8** | New Orleans 4-4 |
| Atlanta 6-10** | Atlanta 2-6 |
| —– | —– |
I guess my predictions weren’t terribly off the mark. However, there are some surprises this year. The NFC north is emerging as by the far the most unpredictable and the most interesting division in football. Obviously, in Green Bay, Brett Favre has shown he has something left (either that or defenses are showing they don’t care to cover the deep routes during the last plays of the game), and the Green Bay defense has come along nicely.
Even so, there is still no dominant running back and you have to wonder if you really want to depend on Brett Favre (legendary as he may be) to win every game in the final minute, especially in the playoffs. Are the people of Wisconsin with their high-fat diet and fried cheese milkshakes ready to sustain such a suspenseful playoff run? Keep the defibrillators ready!
Don’t give up on the Bears just yet. The Grossman era appears to be over, and Brian Griese seems to be earning the confidence of his receivers. The defense has been questionable at times, but I anticipate a renewed vigor after their bye week. Also, the implementation of Hester in the passing game has been key in some victories this year. The Bears will likely find some more creative ways to use Hester. Minnesota will live and die with Adrian Peterson, this year’s breakout player and rookie sensation. They also have Chester Taylor healthy which will allow them to keep Peterson fresh the whole game. The defense has also been effective at times and if this team can put it all together, they could be playing for a wildcard spot. Although, it is far more likely they will be playing the role of spoiler in the NFC north.
The Lions have been especially impressive this year, but they need to protect QB Kitna better to be a legitimate threat deep in the playoffs. They are my favorite in the NFC north though, as I see them edging out Green Bay by one game. However, Green Bay should make the playoffs with a wildcard.
Playoff Predictions AFC: The Byes are going to go to New England and Indianapolis. Granted, this may not be the boldest statement one could make at this point, but my reasoning has more to do with the schedule more than anything the teams have merited. Both Indy and New England have relatively easy schedules to finish the year, and there is simply not enough talent (in terms of the records) in the AFC to compete for a bye.
Short of Pittsburgh winning the rest of their schedule, including a December match up against the Patriots, there is no real threat to either of these teams in the regular season. However, don’t be too sure these two to meet in the AFC Championship, as the AFC is fairly strong, despite the records, and playoff football is surely a different game than during the season.
Thus, the non-bye division winners will be Pittsburgh and San Diego. The AFC Wildcards will be Tennessee and Denver.
NFC: The byes are going to Dallas and Detroit. At last, here lies the bold statement. I really like Detroit with a healthy Kevin Jones as he gives them a balanced approach to their offense which they desperately needed. I would venture to guess that their offensive line struggles which have been a heavy burden this year could be remedied by keeping defenses off-balance with a consistent and effective running attack.
This, coupled with an intuitive notion that Green Bay will falter late due to their youthful inexperience, will get Detroit into a bye position. The non-bye division winners will be New Orleans and Arizona. New Orleans will put things together and finish strong. I see Arizona struggling but being able to put a few key wins together to edge out a weak NFC west by a game or so. The Wildcards will go to Green Bay and New York.
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