One of the most difficult things to do in all of sports is to correctly predict which teams will re¬ceive at-large bids to the Men’s NCAA Tournament. By now everyone knows teams like North Carolina, Connecticut, Duke, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Oklahoma and Michigan State are locks to be danc¬ing in March. The true madness though comes from teams that were either not expected to make the tournament at some point during the season or snuck in at the last minute due to an impres¬sive run in the conference tournament or upset win over a nationally ranked opponent. If you are looking for teams capable of springing a first round upset you have come to the right place.
At the very top of the list of teams to keep an eye on among the BCS confer¬ence schools is Arizona. They endured a lot of off-season turmoil when longtime coach Lute Olson finally retired due to medical reasons and they lost three of their top incoming recruits including Brandon Jennings (who is playing un-happily overseas), Emmanuel Negedu (who opted to play for Tennessee), and San Diego native Jeff Withey (who en¬rolled but transferred to Kansas). As a result they are an experienced team that features only seven players who receive extended minutes. They are led by all-conference selections Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, both juniors and point guard Nic Wise (also a junior) who is taking advantage of extended playing time. Their play of late, reeling off six consecutive conference victories (most recently knocking off UCLA on Satur¬day) putting them in the field of 65 as of now.
Staying out west, several other teams are putting together stellar sea¬sons. Beginning in the state of Utah, three teams will be looking to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Utah, BYU and Utah State are all likely to be included in the Field of 65 and Utah State is especially certain of being in the tournament by virtue of their 24-1 record (12-0) in conference play and a 19-game winning streak. Led by burly senior power forward Gary Wilkinson the Aggies will be a popular pick due their depth, experience and impressive record. Utah State’s only loss this year was to BYU, who currently stand at 18-5 as of this writing, have three players averaging more than 15 PPG (Leo Cum¬mard, Jonathan Tavernari, and Jimmer Fredette) and are the only team to defeat Utah State. They have no other marquee wins however, and road games against UNLV and San Diego State would real¬ly help their tournament resume. Utah, meanwhile, has wins over Mississippi, Oregon, Gonzaga, BYU and San Diego State to their credit and feature talented 7-footer Luke Nevill and three other players averaging double figures in points. Utah’s balanced attack is poised to have them returning to the NCAA tournament after a short absence.
Heading to the Midwest, several teams have emerged as contenders to some of the last few at-large bids doled out by the committee. Dayton, fresh off a win over reigning Atlantic-10 confer¬ence champion Xavier, stand at 22-3 and feature no true star player. Chris Wright leads the team in scoring at just under 13 PPG and Marcus Johnson is right behind him at a shade under 12. They have benefited from phenomenal fan support at home games and victories over Marquette, Auburn, and George Mason in the non-conference portion of their schedule. If you have no clue who Chris Wright is, type in his name and the word ‘dunk’ on You tube and thank the author later. Another team in Ohio is beginning to make waves in arguably the nation’s hardest con¬ference, the Big East. The Cincinnati Bearcats, who just three years ago had one scholarship player returning and a brand new coaching staff, are beginning to turn their talent into victories. They are led by first-team All Big East and do everything guard Deonta Vaughn, an Indianapolis native averaging 16 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Freshman big man Yancy Gates (a Cin¬cinnati native and man child) checks in at 6-9 and 265lbs. is still learning to play hard all the time but notched a career high with 21 points in a win over St. John’s. With 17-9 record (7-6 in the Big East) they still have time to notch some marquee wins with upcom¬ing games against Louisville, Syracuse and West Virginia. If the Bearcats finish with 20 wins and a winning conference record they should be dancing for the first time since 2005.
On the east coast a trio of teams have emerged as Cinderella candidates including Siena, Virginia Common¬wealth (VCU) and South Carolina. The Siena Saints hail from the MAAC (Mid-Atlantic Athletic Conference) and are 20-6 on the season and 14-1 in conference play. The trio of Kenny Hasbrouck, Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin are the team’s three leading scorers but they are a deep team with three other players averaging more than 8 points per game. Early in the season they dropped close games to Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Kansas but rebounded to knock off St. Joseph’s and Holy Cross but they have only 4 games remaining on their schedule. Siena likely needs to win the MAAC tournament and grab the automatic bid but they are danger¬ous because of their depth and tough teams they played in the early part of the season. If VCU rings a bell that is because two years ago they upset Duke in the first round of the tournament and gave Pittsburgh all they could handle before losing in the 2nd round of the tournament. Coach Anthony Grant is a rising star and he is likely to be offered several high profile jobs in the off-sea¬son. Senior point guard Eric Maynor hit the game winning shot against Duke and the future NBA draft pick averages 22.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 6 assists per game. He excels at taking his de-fender off the dribble and has vastly improved his outside shot. The Rams won’t be able to sneak up anyone this time around but remain a team coaches do not want to see in the opening game of the tourney. South Carolina has been a Jekyll and Hyde team most of the sea¬son and have come on strong to posi¬tion themselves for an NCAA tourna¬ment birth. The Gamecocks have taken advantage of a down year in the SEC and are led by the dynamite all-transfer team backcourt of Devan Downey (who transferred from Cincinnati) and Zam Fredrick (who came over from Georgia Tech). The heralded duo, both of whom are South Carolina natives, combine to average 36 points and over 6 assists per game. First year Coach Darrin Horn in¬herited an experienced group that is fi¬nally matching expectations. Key wins this year include three games which South Carolina won by just a single point (at Baylor, at Kentucky and home against Florida). They say success in the tournament depends on guard play and if that holds true South Carolina fans must like their chances of dancing all the way to the Sweet 16.
With the teams to keep an eye on out of the way here are a few teams to keep in mind that are tournament locks. Arizona State and the best player in America no one talks about, James Harden, have been in the Top 25 most of the season and have two wins over UCLA to their credit. Their zone defense with man-to-man principles has given teams fits all season. Marquette, of the Big East, has dropped a few games of late but is powered by the best group of guards in America led by Jerel McNeal (a dark horse Big East player of the year candidate), Wesley Matthews and Dom¬inic James. Forward Lazar Hayward is also an excellent scorer from anywhere on the court. Staying true to Indiana, Butler University continues to win de¬spite losing All-American A.J. Graves from a season ago. Forward Matt How¬ard, who spurned offers from bigger schools to be a Bulldog, teams up with Gordon Hayward and gives opponents trouble up front. Butler has dropped its last two games but this shouldn’t affect their at-large status if they fail to win the Horizon League conference tournament. The final team to track is the young and talented Wake Forest Demon Deacons. They have size, a highly regarded group of freshmen and a fearless lead guard in Jeff Teague who has already led the Deacons to wins over Duke and North Carolina this season. Recent losses to Georgia Tech, Miami and NC State may have some worried but the ACC is an unforgiving and top notch conference. Do not forget about them when filling out your brackets.
Brett is a 3L and can be reached at fo¬run@valpo.edu
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